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ORIGINAL ARTICLES |
1 Glenfield Hospital, Leicester, UK
2 University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
3 Freeman Hospital, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
4 Great Ormond Street Childrens Hospital, London, UK
5 London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
6 Leicester Royal Infirmary, Leicester, UK
Correspondence to:
Dr H Pandya, Consultant Intensivist, Department of ECMO, Glenfield Hospital, Leicester LE3 9QP, UK; hp28{at}le.ac.uk
Accepted 6 June 2007
| ABSTRACT |
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Objective: To explore regional variations in ECMO referrals and neonatal deaths due to severe respiratory failure in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Methods: In this retrospective study, data regarding ECMO referrals due to neonatal respiratory failure from January to December 2002 were obtained from the four UK ECMO centres and then subdivided according to the Government Office Regions. Anonymised data regarding neonatal deaths was obtained from Confidential Enquiry into Maternal and Child Health. Neonatal deaths were classified into four groups (group 1: deaths potentially avoidable by ECMO; group 2: deaths where it was unclear whether ECMO would have been of benefit; group 3: neonates not eligible for ECMO; and group 4: data inadequate to classify deaths).
Results: There was significant regional variation in the rates of both ECMO referral (0.10 to 0.46 per 1000 live births; (p<0.001)) and neonatal deaths (groups 1 and 2) (0.09 to 0.32 per 1000 live births; (p<0.001)). Regions with high referral rates for ECMO tended towards having higher group 1 plus group 2 neonatal death rates (correlation coefficient = 0.75).
Conclusion: It is possible that there are significant regional variations in the uptake of ECMO and in neonatal mortality due to severe respiratory failure. A confidential prospective study may further clarify these observations and identify the factors that might lead to these variations.
The present study aimed to explore:
| METHODS |
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ECMO referral pattern
For reasons of patient confidentiality, we obtained anonymised data regarding ECMO referrals for neonatal respiratory failure from the four UK ECMO centres (Glenfield Hospital, Leicester; Freeman Hospital, Newcastle; Great Ormond Street Hospital for Children, London; and the Royal Hospital for Sick Children, Glasgow) for the period January–December 2002. We subdivided the data according to the Government Office Regions, on the basis of the relevant childs address. The regions used were: North East England, North West England, Yorkshire and the Humber, West Midlands, East Midlands, East of England, South West England, Greater London, South East England, Wales and Northern Ireland. To further preserve data anonymity, these regions were randomly coded 1–11. Regions 1, 3 and 4 have an ECMO centre. Referred patients who were eligible for ECMO and were accepted for ECMO were included in the analysis of outcome irrespective of whether they received ECMO treatment. The rate of referral for ECMO per 1000 live births was determined by using the number of births for the study period reported by the Office of National Statistics (ONS).
Neonatal mortality
We obtained anonymised data on all neonatal deaths in England, Wales and Northern Ireland during for the study period from the Confidential Enquiry into Maternal and Child Health (CEMACH). Data on neonatal mortality from Scotland were not available and hence these were excluded from this study.
For each death it was agreed the following data would be provided: birth weight; gestational age; main fetal disease or conditions; other significant fetal disease or conditions; Wigglesworth classification of neonatal death; fetal and infant classification of neonatal death; obstetric (Aberdeen) classification of neonatal death; geographical region of neonatal death; and age at death. On the basis of these data items, the deaths were classified into one of four groups as defined in box 1. The deaths were classified independently (RT and HP) and discrepancies were discussed with a third observer (DF) to arrive at a consensus. One region (region 10) had very few deaths in group 1, a large number of deaths in group 2 and a high proportion of data regarding cause of death that could not be classified (111/180). Data from this region are shown but are excluded from the statistical analyses. Deaths due to the diagnoses (table 1) that could lead to severe ARF were presumed to be due to severe respiratory failure and eligible for ECMO. Once classified, we determined the neonatal death rates (per 1000 live births) by region of death using birth rate data provided by the ONS.
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| RESULTS |
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Relationship between regional patterns of ECMO referral and regional death rates among neonates potentially eligible for ECMO
Regions with high rates of referral (per 1000 live births) for ECMO tended towards having higher combined (group 1 plus group 2) neonatal death rates (correlation coefficient r = 0.75 (95% CI 0.31 to 0.87), excluding region 10) (fig 2). The correlation was similar even if infants with CDH were excluded from the analysis (r = 0.77 (95% CI 0.32 to 0.88)).
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| DISCUSSION |
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What this study adds
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This study aimed to describe regional variation in ECMO referral rates in the UK and neonatal mortality rates for infants who might potentially have benefited from ECMO, and to explore the relationship between these rates. We have identified apparently quite marked variation in both these rates between the regions. Before considering possible interpretations for these findings, we first discuss some important limitations of the data.
There were some important gaps in the data available to us. Our information about the neonatal deaths was based on where the infant died rather than their place of residence or birth. In addition, we did not have information about neonatal mortality in Scotland, and we had to exclude one region with restricted information about the cause of death. Also, to comply with conditions of confidentiality, the study was based on anonymised data aggregated at regional level. We therefore could not use detailed information to explore explanatory variables at the level of individual infants. The results may therefore exhibit the so-called ecological fallacy, which assumes that all members of a group (region) exhibit characteristics of the group at large.8
We used the classifications of deaths as imperfect proxies for the clinical conditions that may have led to referral for ECMO or otherwise, but we recognise that this is post hoc information rather than reflecting the exact situation facing neonatologists at the point at which they might be considering referral. Also, by using deaths within 28 days of birth as proxy for referral in the neonatal period we may have missed potential referrals within the 28 days who died in the post-neonatal period. It is, however, unlikely that these issues would vary systematically between regions. There may also be some specific misclassification of deaths as data quality in relation to diagnoses on death certificates and diagnostic categories entered in CEMACH forms may vary between individuals in different health regions. We are, however, unaware of any systematic bias in reporting that could account for the scale of difference in neonatal death rate seen in this study.
Our study showed a 4.5-fold variation in the proportion of neonates referred by Government Office Regions for ECMO treatment, which raises the possibility that variation in service provision and/or access to specialist care may be a factor. The rate of referral for ECMO seems most likely to have been influenced by: (a) the number of babies reaching ECMO referral criteria (and hence a reflection of obstetric and neonatal care) and (b) the extent to which local neonatologists caring for those infants felt that such a referral was both in the best interests of the child and feasible in terms of ease of transfer. ECMO is an important example of this phenomenon as the evidence relating to its use is quite clear, especially in relation to infants without diaphragmatic hernia. What is not clear from these data is the extent to which these factors (ie environment vs the care package) were responsible for the variation in deaths in groups 1 and 2.
During the 3-year study period, almost 7000 neonatal deaths were recorded in the CEMACH database in a total birth cohort for the whole the England, Wales and Northern Ireland of nearly 1.86 million, and the neonatal death rate varied by a factor of 2 (2.7–5 deaths per 1000 births) between the Government Office Regions.9 Variations in UK regional neonatal death rates have been recognised for some time and have been attributed to a variety of factors.10 However, this is the first study to show that this variation may be associated with regional differences in the uptake of a particular intervention.
It is difficult to monitor the uptake of the UK ECMO supraregional service. A prospective study of infants meeting criteria for ECMO within one or two regions may clarify the extent of the correlation between ECMO referral rates and neonatal mortality rates for infants who might potentially have benefited from ECMO, but more importantly could highlight whether other "care"-related issues are responsible for some of the variation in neonatal mortality that exists in the UK.
| ACKNOWLEDGMENTS |
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| FOOTNOTES |
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Ethics approval: The Central Office for Research Ethics Committees (COREC) at Central Manchester Local Research Ethics Committee approved the study. The ethics committee requested formation of a formal independent steering group consisting of both clinical and epidemiological experts to review the protocol, discuss progress and approve any dissemination.
Published Online First 26 June 2007
| REFERENCES |
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